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China's copper smelters are facing a deepening profitability squeeze as falling sulphuric acid prices compound record-low negative processing fees, threatening further production cuts.
Chinese sulphuric acid prices have dropped 30% in Q3 to 1,484 yuan per metric ton, while spot copper treatment charges hit a record low of minus $246.40 per ton on October 30.
Extended maintenance outages and potential production cuts could slow global refined copper supply further, while mounting losses may intensify into 2027.
US warehouses now hold 70.1% of all London Metal Exchange copper inventories, the highest share since March 2019, as traders position metal ahead of a potential US import tariff.
LME US inventories reached 223,300 metric tons, while COMEX stocks hit a record 732,315 tons amid anticipation of a proposed 15% tariff on refined copper imports from 2027.
Continued stock concentration in the US could signal shifting global copper trade flows and increase supply uncertainty if the proposed tariff proceeds.
China's copper smelters are facing a deepening profitability crisis as falling sulphuric acid prices compound record-low copper processing fees, prompting maintenance shutdowns and raising the prospect of production cuts. Chinese sulphuric acid prices fell about 30% in Q3 to 1,484 yuan per ton from a July peak of 2,107 yuan, while spot copper treatment charges hit a record low of minus $246.40 per ton on October 30. Further declines in byproduct prices and processing fees could accelerate smelter cutbacks, constrain refined copper output and tighten supply.
Copper prices edged lower as investors assessed whether Democratic gains in the U.S. midterm elections could threaten data-center expansion and weaken a key source of industrial metal demand.
Three-month LME copper futures slipped 0.1% to $13,996 per metric ton, while Democrat candidates in Texas, Georgia and Ohio pledged to crack down on data-center construction.
Potential restrictions on data-center development, particularly in Texas, could pressure copper demand expectations and increase downside risks for prices.
Copper surrendered earlier gains as growing concerns over an AI investment slowdown outweighed broader macroeconomic optimism, leaving benchmark LME copper down 0.04% at $14,005.50 per ton.
China's Yangshan copper import premium climbed to $205 per ton, its highest level in more than a decade, while nickel surged 2.95% on the LME and 5.27% on the SHFE.
Continued weakness in AI-related investment sentiment could pressure copper demand expectations, although tight supply conditions and strong Chinese import appetite may provide support.
Copper and industrial metals rallied as optimism following the US midterm elections lifted market sentiment, with LME copper gaining 0.48% to $14,078.50 per metric ton.
Nickel surged 2.26% on the LME and 4.6% on the SHFE, while China's Yangshan copper premium reached a 12-year high of $205 per ton and the US dollar weakened 0.18%.
Improving global growth expectations, strong Chinese import demand and a weaker dollar could support further gains in industrial metals, although uncertainty surrounding AI infrastructure investment remains a risk.
Copper demand could face near-term headwinds after Democrats gained control of both chambers of the U.S. Congress, according to Ninety One's Paul Gooden.
Increased planning and environmental scrutiny could slow AI data-center development, although Gooden expects projects to eventually proceed amid U.S.-China competition in AI.
Delays or changes to data-center power infrastructure could weigh on near-term copper demand, though the longer-term buildout may remain intact.
Copper recovered earlier losses to hold above $14,000 per metric ton as investors assessed the potential impact of US midterm election results.
LME copper traded at $14,014 per ton, down 0.16%, after falling as much as 1.53%, while expectations of reduced US refined copper tariffs added another potential source of price pressure.
Copper could face near-term downside pressure if lower tariff expectations outweigh longer-term demand prospects tied to AI infrastructure.
Copper prices slipped nearly 1% as risk-off sentiment tied to U.S. midterm election uncertainty continued, keeping the metal near an 11-week low.
LME copper fell 0.99% to $13,897 per ton after touching $13,883, its lowest level since August 19, while Shanghai copper dropped 0.81%.
Persistent political uncertainty and concerns about slower AI infrastructure spending could maintain pressure on copper, although tight supply and strong Chinese import demand may limit further losses.
Marubeni CEO expects the copper market to remain firm over the medium to long term, supported by robust demand from data centres and AI sectors.
The company plans to continue investing in cost-competitive base metals assets in low-country-risk regions, while expecting LNG prices to remain high.
Sustained AI and data centre demand could support copper prices over the longer term, while elevated LNG prices may reinforce strength across energy markets.
A final U.S. decision on refined copper tariffs could be delayed until 2027, extending uncertainty over the timing and scale of potential import duties.
The Commerce Secretary recommended a 15% tariff next year, rising to 30% in 2028, while uncertainty is expected to keep refined copper supplies constrained in China and premiums elevated.
A prolonged decision process could sustain elevated copper premiums and increase uncertainty across the refined copper market.
Copper futures fell below $14,000 per metric ton to an 11-week low, pressured by a technology stock selloff that weakened risk appetite and clouded the global metals demand outlook.
LME copper dropped as much as 3.2% to $13,883 per ton, while tin slid as much as 4.5%; analysts cited uncertainty around AI spending and global growth, despite tightening supply concerns.
The decline could put further pressure on copper if technology-sector weakness continues to undermine demand expectations, although supply constraints may provide support.
Copper plunged 2.5% to a nearly 2.5-month low as weakening risk appetite, AI spending concerns and geopolitical uncertainty triggered a broad selloff across industrial metals.
LME copper touched $13,833 per ton, its lowest since August 19, while breaking below its 100-day moving average at $14,053; persistent tight physical supply in China provided some support.
Continued pressure on technology shares, weaker growth expectations and geopolitical tensions could deepen bearish momentum across industrial metals.
Copper futures declined toward $6.40 per pound as renewed selling in technology stocks and concerns over stretched AI valuations weighed on demand expectations for the metal.
Copper faces pressure from potential December Fed rate hikes, while Chilean production fell to its lowest level in at least two decades during Q3, providing a supply-side cushion.
Continued weakness in technology stocks could pressure copper further, although constrained Chilean production and limited output recovery expectations may support prices.
Reuters technical analysis outlines key intraday support, resistance and target levels across major global commodity markets, including oil, gold, copper and agricultural futures.
Brent crude faces resistance at $105.45, while WTI has a target of $94.13; gold has downside support levels at $3,932, $3,913 and $3,892, with resistance near $4,001.
Price reactions around these technical levels could determine near-term momentum and trigger further moves across energy, metals and agricultural commodities.
Base metals declined as investors weighed a potential technical correction following the previous session's rally, led by copper.
LME three-month copper futures fell 0.7% to $14,244 per metric ton, while aluminum dropped 1.0%, nickel slipped 0.5% and zinc declined 0.9%.
A continued recovery in crude oil prices and fading momentum from the previous rally could extend near-term pressure across the base metals complex.
Copper prices rise 0.7% as a weaker U.S. dollar and Chile's sharply downgraded copper production outlook strengthen supply-side bullish sentiment.
LME copper reaches $14,251 per metric ton, while Chile's Cochilco lowers its production forecast for this year and projects a more modest recovery in 2027; LME inventories climb to 293,775 tons, their highest since mid-July.
Tighter expected supply and a weaker dollar could provide further upside momentum for copper, although rising inventories and election uncertainty may limit gains.
Morgan Stanley expects copper prices to rise, citing tightening supply, concentrated inventories and mounting mine supply challenges.
About 80% of visible global inventories are held in the U.S., while the bank forecasts copper averaging $14,800 per metric ton in Q4 2026 and $14,400 in Q1 2027.
Supply constraints could support further price gains, although expected mine-supply growth and uncertainty over U.S. tariffs may limit the longer-term upside.
LME copper may retest critical support at $14,051 per metric ton, with a break below that level potentially opening the way toward $13,654-$13,804.
Copper recently approached support again after a bounce, while resistance stands at $14,375 and a break below $14,051 would confirm a bearish wedge.
Failure to hold support could intensify selling pressure and extend copper's downside toward the projected lower price range, while a resistance breakout could revive upside momentum.
London copper rebounded 0.73% to $14,258.5 per metric ton as tightening physical supply and lower oil prices supported the market.
Chile sharply lowered its 2026 copper output forecast, while China's Yangshan copper import premium reached $200 per ton and SHFE-monitored inventories fell more than 75% in six months.
Persistent supply constraints and improving demand conditions could support further copper price gains, although lower oil prices may also ease pressure on industrial metal demand.
Copper futures climbed toward $6.50 per pound on Monday, snapping a two-day decline as technology-sector selling eased and market sentiment improved.
Copper also received support from falling oil prices and news that Chilean third-quarter production dropped to its lowest level in at least two decades.
Continued supply constraints in Chile and renewed AI-related infrastructure demand could support further upside in copper prices.
London copper recovered 0.55% to $14,233 per tonne as tightening physical supply and falling oil prices supported the metal, reversing part of the previous week's losses.
Chile sharply lowered its 2026 copper production forecast, while China's Yangshan import premium climbed to $200 per tonne and SHFE-monitored copper inventories fell more than 75% in six months.
Persistent supply constraints and strong Chinese import demand could support further copper gains, although progress toward ending the Iran conflict and lower oil prices may influence industrial metals demand.
Chile's copper production plunged 15.1% year-on-year in September to 387,870 metric tons, marking a significant supply decline in the world's largest copper-producing country.
Statistics agency INE reported the sharp drop, while Chilean manufacturing production increased 2.0% year-on-year during the same month.
The production decline could tighten global copper supply and increase upward price pressure if lower output persists.
Copper is heading for its first monthly decline since June as doubts over whether massive AI spending will generate sufficient returns weigh on risk appetite.
LME three-month copper fell 0.9% to $14,227 a ton and was on track for a 1% October loss, although strong Chinese import demand and near-term supply tightness continued to provide support.
Persistent AI-sector uncertainty could pressure industrial metals, while constrained mine logistics and strong Chinese demand may limit copper's downside.
Copper edged lower as rising oil prices and doubts about AI-driven demand weighed on industrial metals and broader risk appetite. LME copper fell 0.43% to $14,294.50 a ton, while Shanghai copper dropped 0.71%; Chinese warehouse inventories declined nearly 18% to 44,612 tons, providing some support. Persistent demand from China could limit further losses, but higher energy costs and weaker confidence in AI-related demand may pressure copper.
Analysts have raised their 2027 copper price forecast by 7.3% to $14,012 per ton, but growing surplus projections and uncertainty over AI-driven demand point to potential downside risks.
The poll forecasts copper surpluses of 125,000 tons in 2026 and 92,000 tons in 2027, while aluminium is also expected to move into a 410,000-ton surplus next year.
If projected surpluses materialize and AI-related demand disappoints, copper and other industrial metals could face renewed price pressure despite longer-term electrification demand.
Copper prices fell 0.9% as concerns over uncertain AI-related demand and surging US inventories weighed on investor sentiment.
LME copper slipped to $14,352 per metric ton, while US-linked warehouse inventories have climbed 60% this year to 726,039 metric tons; tight Chinese supply and decade-high import premiums provide a counterweight.
Copper could face further pressure if US tariff inaction reduces import demand and AI infrastructure spending fails to deliver the expected boost to consumption.
The Shanghai Futures Exchange has suspended bonded delivery for refined copper and aluminium futures with immediate effect.
The exchange announced the decision on Thursday, affecting bonded delivery arrangements for both industrial metals futures.
The suspension could disrupt bonded delivery flows and increase uncertainty around copper and aluminium futures trading.
Copper prices eased on Thursday but remained near two-week highs as tight physical supplies in China supported the market despite concerns over further US interest rate hikes.
China's Yangshan copper import premium surged to $205 per ton, its highest in more than a decade, while SHFE-monitored copper inventories plunged more than 26% last week.
Persistent supply tightness could support further copper price gains, but expectations of another Federal Reserve rate hike in December may limit upside.