U.S. Long-Term Inflation Expectations Hit 3.5% as Consumer Confidence Falls to 48

U.S. consumer confidence fell to 48 in the final October University of Michigan reading, down from 48.1 in September and the lowest level in nearly five months. Consumer expectations for inflation over the next year rose to 4.7%, while 5-to-10-year inflation expectations climbed to 3.5%; both were the highest since May. The survey said durable-goods buying conditions fell to a record low in October, with nearly 70% of respondents expecting interest rates to rise over the next year. Gasoline prices remained above $4 per gallon, while food and services costs stayed elevated. Business activity remained comparatively resilient. S&P Global’s preliminary October U.S. composite PMI registered 57.6, down 0.8 point from the prior month but still its second-highest level since 2022. New-order growth reached a four-and-a-half-year high and factory employment accelerated, while companies reported the fastest increase in selling prices in more than four years amid higher energy, raw-material and transportation costs, longer delivery times and renewed supply-chain bottlenecks. The data place inflation expectations and corporate pricing pressure in focus for rate-sensitive assets, including XAU, SPX500 and NAS100.