NewsSignals AI analysis·Jinse Finance·Nov 4, 2026

Markets Price an 81.5% Chance of a December Fed Rate Hike

Grade Abearish AI signal$NAS100$SPX500$XAU

CME FedWatch data reported on November 5 show rate markets pricing an 81.5% probability that the Federal Reserve raises rates by 25 basis points in December, versus an 18.5% probability of no change. For January, the probabilities were 14.2% for no change, 67.1% for cumulative 25 basis points of hikes, and 18.7% for cumulative 50 basis points of tightening. The pricing points to a policy path that could extend beyond a single December meeting. Duration-sensitive markets, including growth equities and crypto, remain focused on incoming inflation, labor-market data and Fed communications.

Bullish strength: 22.5/100

Clear rate-hike expectations can reduce policy uncertainty

Bearish strength: 77.5/100

Probability of a 25 bps rate hike in December rises to 81.5%
Tightening expectations rise, putting valuation pressure on risk assets

This is automated NewsSignals analysis of third-party reporting, not independent original reporting or investment advice. AI scores are not price predictions.

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