U.S. October CPI Due Tonight, YoY Data Missing; Core Inflation Distortion Risk

U.S. October CPI is due at 21:30 Beijing time, with markets expecting headline CPI to rise 0.3% month on month, down from 0.6% in September, and core CPI to rise 0.2%, below September’s 0.30%. The release will not include year-on-year headline or core CPI figures because missing data tied to the 2025 federal government shutdown prevents the Bureau of Labor Statistics from constructing the calculation base. Year-on-year real wage data will also be absent. Goldman Sachs estimates seasonal-adjustment imputation could add about 0.05 percentage point to October core CPI. It expects a 0.21% headline increase and 0.16% core increase, citing a projected 2.5% monthly drop in Medicare, a 1.5% decline in used-car prices, a 0.3% fall in auto insurance and slower housing-cost gains. At Monday’s close, swap markets had priced about 21.4 basis points of rate hikes for the December meeting, close to fully pricing a 25-basis-point move. The Federal Reserve’s December 8-9 meeting will follow another nonfarm payrolls report and additional price data.