NewsSignals AI analysis·WallstreetCN·Oct 28, 2026

Fed Holds at 3.75%-4.00% as AI Earnings Split Markets

Grade Sbullish AI signal$NAS100$SPX500

The Federal Reserve kept its federal funds target range at 3.75%-4.00%. Two voting members, Cook and Hammack, favored a 25-basis-point increase. AI earnings produced sharply divergent signals. Microsoft reported Azure revenue growth of 48% above expectations and said second-quarter capital expenditures are expected to exceed $50 billion. It forecast second-quarter total revenue of $96 billion to $97.1 billion and rose after hours. Google fell 10% after hours following Q3 results that missed expectations, alongside a sharp decline in free cash flow. Its capital expenditure also missed expectations, intensifying scrutiny over returns on AI investment. Oracle gained 10.58% at the close after saying free cash flow is expected to turn positive in the second half of fiscal 2028, exceed $30 billion in fiscal 2029, and face an additional financing cap of $20 billion before fiscal 2030. The focus is shifting from AI spending toward which companies can convert large capital expenditures into cash flow, with cloud, memory chips and data-center supply chains in focus.

Bullish strength: 58/100

U.S. stocks rise for a third straight session as improved risk appetite supports NAS100
Microsoft Azure posts strong growth and raises revenue guidance

Bearish strength: 42/100

Google earnings miss expectations, deepening doubts over AI returns
Hawkish voting members and overseas rate hikes add pressure from high interest rates

This is automated NewsSignals analysis of third-party reporting, not independent original reporting or investment advice. AI scores are not price predictions.

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Fed May Cut Rate Decisions to Six a Year From 2028

Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh said the Fed plans to gradually adjust its annual policy-meeting schedule from 2027, potentially reducing formal rate decisions to six per year by 2028 while maintaining eight total meetings. In 2027, the Fed would still hold eight policy meetings, but one would be dedicated to broad monetary-policy strategy without a rate vote or policy statement. Warsh said the number of strategy-focused meetings could increase to two in 2028. Following a rate decision described as in line with market expectations, the 2-year Treasury yield traded near 4.76%. Long-term Treasury yields rose after Warsh’s comments on changing the voting schedule, according to WisdomTree investment strategy head Kevin Flanagan. The proposal shifts time from formal rate decisions toward longer-term policy deliberation. The Fed said further details on the meeting-schedule changes will be released.

Key Market Events to Watch (All Times Beijing Time)

A packed macro and earnings calendar centers on U.S. Q3 GDP, September personal consumption expenditures (PCE) and weekly initial jobless claims, all scheduled for 20:30 Beijing time. The European Central Bank is set to announce its policy rates at 21:15 Beijing time, followed by ECB President Christine Lagarde's press conference at 21:45. The final October euro-area consumer confidence reading is scheduled for 18:00. Other scheduled events include Samsung Electronics' third-quarter earnings call at 09:00, TotalEnergies earnings before the European equity open, and earnings from Eli Lilly and Caterpillar before the U.S. equity market opens. Amazon, SanDisk, Intel, Strategy and Vale are scheduled to report after the U.S. market close. Ukraine's central bank is due to announce its rate decision at 20:00 Beijing time. ECB Governing Council members Kocher and Sleijpen are scheduled to speak in Vienna at 00:00 the following day, followed by Swiss National Bank Governing Board member Petra Tschudin at 01:00.

Fed Holds at 3.75%-4% as Warsh Gives No December Signal

The Federal Reserve held its federal funds target range at 3.75%-4% after a 10-2 FOMC vote. Governor Cook and Cleveland Fed President Hammack dissented, each favoring another 25-basis-point increase. Chair Warsh gave no clear guidance for the December meeting, saying policy discussions remain focused on price stability and that the Fed needs more economic information before judging the appropriate stance. The Fed reiterated that inflation remains elevated, while upgrading its description of economic activity from “solid expansion” to “strong expansion.” The decision follows a 25-basis-point rate increase in September. Warsh said that move’s effects on financial markets have been broadly in line with expectations. He noted that credit spreads have widened in some assets and capital allocation has become more cautious, while declining to characterize current financial conditions as restrictive. The Fed continues to target 2% inflation measured by the PCE price index. September CPI posted its highest year-over-year increase in five months, with energy prices a key driver and price increases broadening across goods and services. The Fed was set to receive an update on September PCE data on Thursday. Warsh also cited stronger growth: first-half GDP growth was revised to 2.4% from 1.8%, and third-quarter growth could exceed 3%. He said business investment may record double-digit growth, with AI-related capital spending a tailwind, though higher financing costs are increasingly affecting technology and other assets.

Gold Falls as Traders Mull Fed Decision — Market Talk

Gold fell 0.6% in early Asian trading after the Federal Reserve held interest rates steady, with investors assessing the outlook for monetary policy. Spot gold traded at $4,044.04 an ounce as traders weighed Fed Chair Warsh's comments and the potential for further rate increases this year and in 2027. Upcoming U.S. PCE inflation and economic growth data could pressure gold if figures strengthen the case for higher rates, while dovish readings may support the metal by easing yields.