NewsSignals AI analysis·Cointelegraph·
Bitcoin win rate vs. S&P 500 recovers as post-midterm history favors stocks
Grade Abullish AI signal$BTC$SPX
Bitcoin's relative performance against the S&P 500 has recovered to a 50% session win rate over the latest 90 trading sessions, ending a losing streak that had persisted since March 2025.
Glassnode reports Bitcoin's average session gains are now slightly higher than the S&P 500, while historical data shows the index gained an average of 10.7% in the three months following comparable Democratic midterm sweeps.
Improving relative momentum and positive stock-market seasonality could support risk appetite, although Bitcoin's direction may remain closely tied to broader equity-market performance.
Bullish strength: 60/100
- Bitcoin outperformed the S&P 500 in 50% of US trading sessions over the latest 90-session period.
- Bitcoin's average per-session gains were slightly higher than those of the S&P 500.
- Historical S&P 500 returns following comparable midterm election outcomes averaged 10.7% over three months.
- Bitcoin's 20-day rolling correlation with the S&P 500 reached a positive 0.63.
Bearish strength: 40/100
- Bitcoin's session win rate has not exceeded 50% since March 2025.
- The historical election-performance data favors the S&P 500 rather than establishing a comparable Bitcoin return outlook.
- Bitcoin's positive 0.63 correlation with the S&P 500 indicates continued exposure to equity-market movements.
This is automated NewsSignals analysis of third-party reporting, not independent original reporting or investment advice. AI scores are not price predictions.